Top 12 Flu Facts

The question anyone should ask about the current alarmist state of reporting on the threat of swine flu and pandemic is – where is the vested interest? With that question answered, you can then start to get a better handle on the reality of the situation. The next question is – what are the basic principles that might affect the risk that I, or my family will become infected with a fatal disease?

The Need for Science in Reporting Health Stories

Let’s look at some of the more fundamental biological principles:

Flu fact 1: Viral infections including flu are not normally fatal

Flu fact 2: Pandemics happen –  see the definition and facts on current UK Swine Flu status.

Flu fact 3: Genes continuously mutate - it’s a fact of life (and death). The number of mutations is proportional to population size.

Flu fact 4: Viruses and bacteria co-exist with all plants and animals including humans

Flu fact 5: Human natural immunity to disease is dependent on our co-existence with parasites, bacteria and viruses, (there are more bacterial cells in a human than there are human cells)

Flu fact 6: Over-population, population density and population mobility increases risk of pandemic

Flu Fact 7: It is no coincidence that new mutations emerge predominantly from densely populated areas of the planet such as Mexico City and China - ‘Asian Flu’.

Flu fact 8: The theoretical risk of viruses mutating and transferring between species has always existed and does frequently happen (e.g. Cow Pox and Chicken Pox)

Flu fact 9: Viruses can become more dangerous when infecting non-traditional hosts

Flu fact 10: Fact 6 is probably the most important risk factor for pandemic

Flu fact 11: All population sizes are governed by the same biological principles i.e. lag, log, stationary, death.

Flu Fact 12: The biggest population density in Europe is South East England, which is also a central hub via ports and airports for global population mobility.

The Game is a Matter of Life and Death

Our lives are the result of a quid pro quo balancing act between all life forms including fungi, viruses, bacteria, reptiles, amphibians, birds and mammals (including man). In terms of sheer numbers, technology has temporarily tipped the balance in favour of man.

Most scientists accept that rates of viral reproduction occur too fast for medical technology to provide a panacea. Technology including vaccines and anti-virals are likely only to postpone the ultimate ‘stationary’ and ‘death’ phases of human population growth. And this assumes that other factors such as war, famine, toxic poisoning, anthropogenic climate change or meteorite strike don’t beat fatal infection to it. The theoretical risk has always been there. The only thing that is different is the size of population and speed of travel. So, the only logical constructive conclusion is that the only effective remedy to prevent risk of pandemic is to either control movement or employ better family planning (or both). Reliable swine flu advice.

These are some of the facts that would constitute responsible and accurate reporting in the media. Otherwise – only read the sports section. Football results don’t lie.